David P. McClure

Tech Predictions For 2007

Column: The Bleeding Edge

By David P. McClure

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From the January-March 2007 Issue & 2007 Tax Season Survival Guide

If the technology scene in 2005 was too boring for words, 2006 was downright strange. The major re-write of the Telecommunications Act, which would have overhauled video franchise rules nationwide and stimulated new investments in broadband, never got off the ground. Technology policy at the national level got bogged down in the debate over “network neutrality,” which no one could define but about which everyone had an opinion.

The world discovered social networks, but by the time the year came to an end it was once again clear that teens are fickle consumers. MySpace had already become “so yesterday,” YouTube was pestered by copyright issues, and only Google seemed to be holding its own in terms of stock values. Elsewhere, the statute of limitations ran out on most of the charges pending against AOL executives for financial misconduct … with virtually no charges filed. AOL itself went quietly into the night, swapping its Internet/online service persona for a more lucrative ad-supported portal. Earthlink continued to look for a path to survival, but without much luck.

And then there was the election. It took up so much time, so much advertising, and so much raw energy that there simply wasn’t room for much technology news to filter through. What little news we heard was mostly bad — as when people distressed over the limited quantities of the new Sony PlayStation and resorted to shooting one another to steal them. As for the predictions we (at Kent Associates) made with such confidence at the beginning of the year, our score was less than sterling. Here’s the scorecard.

 
2006 Predictions & Results
Score
1

Prediction: Television will come to the cell phone.
Actual Results: It’s a small audience so far — only about 7 million Americans. But it is being carefully watched by TV execs, who note that those who watch TV on the tiny screen become more loyal viewers on the big screens as well.
+1
2

Prediction: WiMAX wireless will be a flop.
Actual Results: Not just a flop, but a complete non-starter. Sure, a few companies are working on trials. But you won’t see a lot of WiMAX deployment anywhere outside of third-world countries. Too little, too late, too costly.
+1
3

Prediction: Voice over IP will fade away.

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